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Red Sox (+154) at Rays (-176)
Over/Under: 8.5 (-116/-103)
Game Pick: Rays (Probablity Correct: 83.29%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: OVER (Probablity Correct: 52.69%) CORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Rays | 4 | 9 | 2 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 22, 2019 03:32:02 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 16.71%
Prob Home Team Wins: 83.29%
Average Comb Score: 9.27
Median Comb Score: 9.00
Std Comb Score: 4.44
Prob Over: 52.69%
Prob Under: 47.31%
Red Sox Forecasted to Lose at Home to Rays Despite Rafael Devers's Effort
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Nathan Eovaldi
Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA License
September 22, 2019 -- According to the Snoozle model, the visiting Red Sox have a 77.21% chance to lose to the home town Rays.
The Red Sox have Nathan Eovaldi as the probable starting pitcher against Ryan Yarbrough. The Red Sox starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 20.128 outs, allow 3.408 earned runs, and a 0.003 probability of a complete game. Our model forecasts the Rays pitcher will have an outing for 7.168 innings, allowing 1.699 earned runs, with a 2.290 walks.
Rafael Devers, Red Sox's top hitter, will slug it out on the road against Travis d'Arnaud in today's game. According to our game model, Rafael Devers is estimated to have 0.414 RBIs and score 0.406 runs over an estimated 4.131 at-bats. Travis d'Arnaud is forecast to bat for 0.284 with 1.164 RBIs and 0.772 runs scored.
Based on the -176 odds and an estimated 77.21% chance to win, the Rays are the best value for the money line. According to prediction model the 55.98% over estimate and -116 line odds for 8.5 runs, the over line is the best value.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 13:05:38 UTC
Red Sox Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF) | 4.02 | 0.38 | 0.64 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.156 | 0.234 | 0.293 |
| Rafael Devers (3B) | 4.08 | 0.44 | 0.98 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.236 | 0.281 | 0.429 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SS) | 3.86 | 0.40 | 0.91 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.231 | 0.298 | 0.420 |
| J.D. Martinez (DH) | 3.77 | 0.37 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.230 | 0.302 | 0.431 |
| Christian Vazquez (1B) | 3.87 | 0.26 | 0.78 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.197 | 0.235 | 0.343 |
| Sam Travis (LF) | 3.75 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.156 | 0.200 | 0.282 |
| Gorkys Hernandez (RF) | 3.65 | 0.14 | 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.138 | 0.173 | 0.235 |
| Chris Owings (2B) | 3.46 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.106 | 0.162 | 0.158 |
| Juan Centeno (C) | 3.39 | 0.18 | 0.68 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.195 | 0.231 | 0.231 |
Rays Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Wendle (3B) | 4.78 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.267 | 0.332 | 0.372 |
| Austin Meadows (RF) | 4.55 | 0.95 | 1.51 | 0.86 | 0.52 | 0.326 | 0.402 | 0.634 |
| Thomas Pham (LF) | 4.27 | 0.81 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.310 | 0.413 | 0.508 |
| Ji-Man Choi (DH) | 4.10 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.289 | 0.406 | 0.488 |
| Brandon Lowe (2B) | 4.33 | 0.78 | 1.38 | 1.02 | 0.40 | 0.311 | 0.380 | 0.592 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (1B) | 4.25 | 0.66 | 1.28 | 0.84 | 0.39 | 0.294 | 0.362 | 0.518 |
| Willy Adames (SS) | 4.13 | 0.58 | 1.22 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.290 | 0.359 | 0.477 |
| Kevin Kiermaier (CF) | 4.16 | 0.52 | 1.13 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 0.267 | 0.318 | 0.461 |
| Mike Zunino (C) | 3.96 | 0.52 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.37 | 0.204 | 0.278 | 0.388 |
Red Sox Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 20.06 | 7.87 | 3.11 | 0.49 | 3.47 | 6.15 | 16.38% |
Rays Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | 23.99 | 0.00 | 2.03 | 0.13 | 1.38 | 7.44 | 83.05% |
Nathan Eovaldi Comes Out Victorious in a Red Sox at Rays Matchup, 7-4
Sun, Sep 22, 2019 | Emma Botos
Nathan Eovaldi
Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA License
September 22, 2019 -- On the road, the Red Sox take the Rays for a 7-4 win.
Nathan Eovaldi had a stellar start on the team's road win. The pitcher allowed 0.366 OBP. The hurler gave up 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings. Throwing 70 strikes in a 100 pitch outing for 6 strikeouts. Red Sox's starter allowed 7 hits and 2 walks.
J.D. Martinez DH led the Red Sox led in hitting against the Rays's pitching. He had a 0.302 batting average in the game. He had 0 Ks in the game. The Red Sox hitter had 2 RBI and scored 2 runs in the road outing. He had a 0.381 OBP with 4 at bats. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.560.
In a home loss, the Ryan Yarbrough start was not enough to lead the Rays to a win over the Red Sox. The Rays pitcher had a 0.245 OBP for his appearance. The pitcher allowed 6 earned runs over 3.1 innings pitched. Throwing 40 strikes in a 63 pitch outing for 2 strikeouts. The Rays hurler threw for 8 hits and 1 walk allowed.
Posted at Sun, September 22, 2019 21:31:38 UTC
Red Sox Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.221 | 0.316 | 0.415 |
| Rafael Devers (3B) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.307 | 0.359 | 0.551 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SS) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.304 | 0.380 | 0.551 |
| J.D. Martinez (DH) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.302 | 0.381 | 0.560 |
| Christian Vazquez (1B) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.274 | 0.317 | 0.473 |
| Sam Travis (LF) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.224 | 0.276 | 0.403 |
| Gorkys Hernandez (RF) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.107 | 0.138 | 0.179 |
| Chris Owings (2B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.131 | 0.198 | 0.214 |
| Juan Centeno (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.100 | 0.308 | 0.100 |
Rays Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Wendle (3B) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.234 | 0.297 | 0.338 |
| Austin Meadows (RF) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.289 | 0.360 | 0.561 |
| Thomas Pham (LF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.276 | 0.372 | 0.452 |
| Ji-Man Choi (DH) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.255 | 0.360 | 0.432 |
| Brandon Lowe (2B) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.277 | 0.341 | 0.521 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.266 | 0.327 | 0.462 |
| Willy Adames (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.253 | 0.316 | 0.416 |
| Kevin Kiermaier (CF) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.228 | 0.276 | 0.394 |
| Mike Zunino (C) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.169 | 0.236 | 0.318 |