Advertisement
Marlins (+250) at Braves (-290)
Over/Under: 10.0 (+100/-120)
Game Pick: Braves (Probablity Correct: 70.65%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 60.97%) CORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| Braves | 5 | 7 | 1 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Aug 20, 2019 07:32:32 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 29.35%
Prob Home Team Wins: 70.65%
Average Comb Score: 9.65
Median Comb Score: 9.00
Std Comb Score: 4.46
Prob Over: 39.03%
Prob Under: 60.97%
Brian Anderson's Hitting is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Visiting Marlins Over the Braves
Tue, Aug 20, 2019 | Emma Botos
Brian Anderson and J. T. Realmuto of the Miami Marlins. Austin Wynns of the Baltimore Orioles. Camden Yards in Baltimore in 2018.
Keith Allison: Flickr, e-mail, Twitter, Instagram, website License
August 20, 2019 -- The Marlins has an estimated 75.77% likelihood to lose to the Braves based on our model.
On the mound for the Marlins will be Elieser Hernandez matched up against Dallas Keuchel. Elieser Hernandez is estimated to have 2.909 earned runs, 20.752 outs, and 5.941 strike outs. Dallas Keuchel is estimated from the model to throw for 6.813 innings, allowing 1.804 earned runs, with 7.203 Ks.
The Marlins's Brian Anderson and the Braves's Adeiny Hechavarria will slug it out from the plate. According to our game model, Brian Anderson is estimated to have 0.455 RBIs and score 0.591 run over an estimated 4.088 at-bats. According to our game model, Adeiny Hechavarria is estimated to bring in 1.145 RBIs and 0.748 runs scored, with an 0.317 OBP and 0.045 Ks.
For this matchup Braves are the best value on the money line bets with on the -280 home ML odds and a forecasted 75.77% chance to win. The over/under line of 9.5 runs with -105 over odds and a predicted 63.67% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.
Posted at Tue, August 20, 2019 13:04:08 UTC
Marlins Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Berti (SS) | 4.32 | 0.63 | 1.22 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.276 | 0.363 | 0.437 |
| Isan Diaz (2B) | 4.40 | 0.51 | 1.01 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.223 | 0.287 | 0.337 |
| Brian Anderson (RF) | 4.18 | 0.61 | 1.11 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.259 | 0.339 | 0.472 |
| Garrett Cooper (1B) | 4.12 | 0.54 | 1.23 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 0.292 | 0.363 | 0.460 |
| Starlin Castro (3B) | 4.32 | 0.37 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 0.265 | 0.293 | 0.385 |
| Harold Ramírez (LF) | 4.15 | 0.34 | 1.16 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.273 | 0.311 | 0.404 |
| Jorge Alfaro (C) | 4.02 | 0.30 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.263 | 0.304 | 0.409 |
| Lewis Brinson (CF) | 3.93 | 0.18 | 0.74 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.183 | 0.226 | 0.239 |
| Elieser Hernandez (P) | 2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Braves Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF) | 4.53 | 0.82 | 1.35 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.291 | 0.367 | 0.529 |
| Ozzie Albies (2B) | 4.59 | 0.69 | 1.38 | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.295 | 0.352 | 0.499 |
| Freddie Freeman (1B) | 4.23 | 0.76 | 1.27 | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.293 | 0.387 | 0.542 |
| Josh Donaldson (3B) | 4.01 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.263 | 0.381 | 0.524 |
| Brian McCann (C) | 4.18 | 0.59 | 1.08 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.253 | 0.331 | 0.406 |
| Matt Joyce (RF) | 3.94 | 0.59 | 1.03 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 0.255 | 0.355 | 0.410 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) | 4.40 | 0.77 | 1.47 | 1.27 | 0.03 | 0.326 | 0.334 | 0.705 |
| Rafael Ortega (LF) | 4.06 | 0.38 | 0.99 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.237 | 0.286 | 0.312 |
| Dallas Keuchel (P) | 3.91 | 0.45 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.220 | 0.277 | 0.343 |
Marlins Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elieser Hernandez | 20.71 | 4.73 | 3.04 | 0.22 | 2.93 | 6.35 | 30.45% |
Braves Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | 21.75 | 7.33 | 1.80 | 0.53 | 2.03 | 6.68 | 67.47% |
Marlins Hurler Elieser Hernandez Effort Not Enough Against Braves, 1-5
Wed, Aug 21, 2019 | Emma Botos
Starlin Castro
Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA License
August 20, 2019 -- The visiting Marlins lose to the Braves, 1 to 5.
The Marlins starter Elieser Hernandez could not help the offense to pull out the win. The pitcher allowed 0.326 OBP. The Marlins pitcher threw for 3 hits and 2 walks allowed. Elieser Hernandez allowed 1 earned runs over 4.0 innings pitched.
Slugger Starlin Castro could not achieve the Marlins road win over the Braves's pitching. The hitter gave up 0 Ks. On the road, he had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.262. Leading the team in slugging for the season, Starlin Castro had a 0.380 slugging percentage. With 4 at bats, Starlin Castro had a 0.286 OBP.
The Braves's starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel led team on the mound. He gave up 1 earned runs over 6.0 innings pitched. He pitched for 7 Ks. A 4.14 ERA and 0.330 OBP in the appearance against Marlins. The Braves starter allowed 6 hits and 2 walks.
Posted at Wed, August 21, 2019 02:31:33 UTC
Marlins Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Berti (SS) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.274 | 0.355 | 0.452 |
| Isan Diaz (2B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.173 | 0.228 | 0.250 |
| Brian Anderson (RF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.264 | 0.343 | 0.475 |
| Garrett Cooper (1B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.285 | 0.354 | 0.447 |
| Starlin Castro (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.262 | 0.286 | 0.380 |
| Harold Ramírez (LF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 0.311 | 0.401 |
| Jorge Alfaro (C) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.255 | 0.294 | 0.392 |
| Lewis Brinson (CF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.177 | 0.217 | 0.231 |
| Elieser Hernandez (P) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.071 | 0.133 | 0.071 |
Braves Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (CF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.296 | 0.376 | 0.537 |
| Ozzie Albies (2B) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.294 | 0.349 | 0.494 |
| Freddie Freeman (1B) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0.307 | 0.399 | 0.576 |
| Josh Donaldson (3B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.267 | 0.382 | 0.532 |
| Brian McCann (C) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.264 | 0.336 | 0.423 |
| Matt Joyce (RF) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.273 | 0.371 | 0.438 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.214 | 0.271 | 0.370 |
| Rafael Ortega (LF) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.357 | 0.583 |
| Dallas Keuchel (P) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.125 | 0.160 | 0.167 |