Xander Bogaerts's Hitting is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Visiting Red Sox Over the Rays

Fri, Sep 20, 2019 | Emma Botos


Rick Porcello
Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 20, 2019 -- The Red Sox has an estimated 66.46% likelihood to lose to the Rays based on our model.

The Red Sox have Rick Porcello as the probable starting pitcher against Charlie Morton. Rick Porcello is estimated to have 2.774 earned runs, 21.006 outs, and 5.641 strike outs. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Charlie Morton will have 1.981 earned runs, a predicted 22.563 outs, and 5.801 strike outs.

Expected in today's lineup will be top hitters Xander Bogaerts and Austin Meadows from Red Sox and Rays, respectively. According to our game model, Xander Bogaerts is estimated to have 0.561 RBIs and score 0.474 runs over an estimated 3.979 at-bats. Austin Meadows is forecast to bat for 0.296 with 0.667 RBIs and 0.816 runs scored.

Based on the -185 odds and an estimated 66.46% chance to win, the Rays are the best value for the money line. There is no good value for this game's over/under bet, our model's predictions show no clear favorite based on the over(-106)/under(-109) odds, the 8.5 runs, and our model's predicted combined score estimate.

Posted at Fri, September 20, 2019 13:04:35 UTC