Wilmer Flores's Stick is Forecast to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Favorite Diamondbacks Over the Padres

Sat, Sep 28, 2019 | Emma Botos


Garrett Richards
Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 28, 2019 -- The Diamondbacks change of losing to the Padres is 56.25% based on our model.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Diamondbacks's Robbie Ray and the Padres's Garrett Richards. The Diamondbacks starting hurler is predicted to throw for 21.271 outs, allow 2.624 earned runs, and a 0.008 probability of a complete game. Garrett Richards is estimated to have 2.263 earned runs, 22.065 outs, and 6.350 strike outs.

Wilmer Flores, Diamondbacks's top hitter, will slug it out against Eric Hosmer in today's game. Based on the Snoozle model, Wilmer Flores is predicted to have 0.492 RBIs and score 0.569 runs over an estimated 4.420 at-bats. Eric Hosmer 1B is forecast to bring in 0.624 RBIs and 0.484 runs scored, with an 0.313 OBP and 1.136 Ks.

With +146 money line odds and a estimated 56.25% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Padres over the Diamondbacks. With a predicted 62.19% likelihood and -105 odds at 9.0 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Sat, September 28, 2019 13:05:13 UTC