Underdog Saints on the Road Forecasted to Beat the Bears

Thu, Oct 17, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-10-20 -- The Saints with a 83.4% forecasted chance to beat the Bears on the road based on the Snoozle football model.

The Saints are estimated to score 25.4 points on the road. The Saints are predicted from the model to throw for 303.4 yards on 46.8 attempts for 30.7 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.9 touchdowns and 1.6 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Saints will rush for 1.0 touchdowns against the Bears defense on 30.1 attempts for a projected 164.9 yards.

At home, the Bears are forecast to score 9.4 points. The Bears are estimated from the model to throw for 199.4 yards on 37.8 attempts for 19.5 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 0.7 touchdowns and 2.4 interceptions. The Bears are predicted from the model to run for 0.1 touchdown against Saints with 15.9 rush attempts for 24.2 yards.

For this game, the Saints are the best value against the spread bets with on a predicted 83.4% probability to beat the +3.0 point spread. With an over/under of 38.0 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 70.4% over likelihood and -110 odds.

Posted at Thu, October 17, 2019 13:06:18 UTC