Underdog Patriots on the Road Forecasted to Beat the Bills

Sat, Oct 31, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-11-01 -- According to our model, the Patriots predicted to over perform on the road against the Bills with a 59.9% chance to win.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Patriots have an average of 23.7 points for the game. Our model forecasts Patriots will pass for 1.6 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions against the Bills defense on a forecasted 20.6 competitions with 31.4 attempts for 247.1 yards. The Patriots are estimated from the model to rush for 1.1 touchdown against Bills with 32.7 rush attempts for 172.7 yards.

At home, the Bills are forecast to score 17.4 points. The Bills are expected to throw for 1.3 touchdowns with 33.5 pass attempts with 22.5 competitions for 242.0 yards, and an estimated 0.1 interception. The model estimates the Bills will run on 26.4 attempts against the Patriots with an estimated total of 124.8 yards and 0.6 rushing touchdowns.

For this game, the Patriots are the best value against the spread bets with on a predicted 59.9% probability to beat the +4.0 point spread. According to prediction model the 77.2% over estimate and -110 line odds for 41.0 runs, the over line is the best value.

Posted at Sat, October 31, 2020 13:09:24 UTC