Underdog LSU Predicted at Home to Beat Alabama

Sat, Dec 5, 2020 | Consuelo Machina


2020-12-05 -- LSU likely winner at home over Alabama with a 67.5% of being correct based on our model.

At home, LSU is forecast to score 32.0 points. Our model forecasts LSU will pass for 2.4 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions against the Alabama defense on a projected 29.9 competitions with 36.8 attempts for 325.8 passing yards. The model estimates LSU will run on 36.6 attempts against Alabama with an estimated total of 172.4 yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns.

Based on the montecarlo model, Alabama has an average of 23.6 points for the game. Alabama is forecast to pass for 1.9 touchdowns on 34.4 pass attempts with 26.7 competitions for 325.0 yards, and a predicted 1.9 interceptions. Alabama is predicted to run for 139.2 yards on 34.7 attempts with an estimated 0.8 touchdowns.

LSU is the best value for the ATS based on a predicted 95.7% estimated to cover a +29.5 spread. There is no good value for this game's over/under bet, our model's predictions show no clear favorite based on the over(-110)/under(-110) odds, the 65.5 runs, and our model's predicted combined score estimate.

Posted at Sat, December 5, 2020 13:00:27 UTC