Underdog Dolphins on the Road Forecasted to Beat the Patriots

Mon, Sep 7, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-09-13 -- The visiting Dolphins has an estimated 55.4% chance to overcome the Patriots based on our football model.

The Dolphins are estimated to score 17.0 points on the road. The Dolphins are forecast to pass for 1.2 touchdowns on 43.7 pass attempts with 24.9 competitions for 238.8 yards, and a predicted 2.0 interceptions. The Dolphins are estimated from the model to rush for 0.5 touchdowns against Patriots with 24.5 rush attempts for 104.8 yards.

The Patriots are estimated to score 14.4 points at home. The Patriots are estimated from the model to throw for 237.7 yards on 39.7 attempts for 20.7 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 1.1 touchdown and 0.4 interceptions. The Patriots are forecast to rush for 96.0 yards on 23.0 attempts with an estimated 0.4 rushing touchdowns.

For this game, the Dolphins are the best value against the spread bets with on a predicted 55.4% probability to beat the +6.5 point spread. The over/under line of 43.5 runs with -110 over odds and a predicted 60.1% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Mon, September 7, 2020 11:09:04 MST