The Visiting Phillies with Likely Starting Pitcher Jason Vargas Predicted Winner Over the Odds-on Indians

Sat, Sep 21, 2019 | Emma Botos


Jason Vargas
Jeff Dunn on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 21, 2019 -- The visiting Phillies has an estimated 53.02% chance to overcome the Indians based on our model.

On the mound for the Phillies will be Jason Vargas matched up against Zach Plesac. The Phillies starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.667 outs, allow 2.420 earned runs, and a 0.013 probability of a complete game. Zach Plesac is estimated from the model to throw for 6.698 innings, allowing 2.422 earned runs, with 6.921 K.

The Phillies's Jean Segura and the Indians's Carlos Santana will slug it out from the plate. The Phillies's Jean Segura from the plate is forecast to score 0.564 runs, 0.729 RBIs and have a 0.263 OBP. According to our game model, Carlos Santana 1B is estimated to bring in 0.590 RBIs and 0.605 runs scored, with an 0.379 OBP and 0.707 Ks.

With +146 money line odds and a estimated 53.02% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Phillies over the Indians. With a predicted 64.85% likelihood and -107 odds at 10.5 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Sat, September 21, 2019 14:10:28 MST