The Underdog Raiders with a Predicted Win Over the Patriots

Sat, Sep 26, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-09-27 -- The Raiders has an predicted 66.4% chance for a road over the Patriots.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Raiders have an average of 26.0 points for the game. The Raiders are forecast to pass for 2.5 touchdowns on 49.6 pass attempts with 34.6 competitions for 417.8 yards, and a predicted 1.3 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Raiders will rush for 0.6 touchdowns against the Patriots defense on 28.5 attempts for a projected 90.8 yards.

The Patriots are predicted to score 16.9 points on the home turf against Raiders. The Patriots are estimated from the model to throw for 167.7 yards on 26.8 attempts for 17.8 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 0.9 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Patriots will rush for 0.8 touchdowns against the Raiders defense on 32.5 attempts for a projected 138.5 yards.

Based on a predicted 78.2% probability to cover a +5.5 spread, the Raiders are the best value for the ATS bets. Based on the prediction model's over 65.6% likelihood and -110 odds, the over line with 47.5 runs is the best value.

Posted at Sat, September 26, 2020 13:03:58 UTC