The Home Texas State's Offense is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull Over UL Monroe

Tue, Oct 8, 2019 | Consuelo Machina


2019-10-10 -- Texas State under perform at home with a 75.2% chance to lose against UL Monroe based on our football model.

Texas State is predicted to score 17.1 points on the home turf against UL Monroe. Texas State is expected to throw for 1.5 touchdowns with 49.4 pass attempts with 34.1 competitions for 315.7 yards, and an estimated 1.8 interceptions. Our model forecasts Texas State will rush for 0.4 touchdowns against the UL Monroe defense on 20.7 attempts for a projected 81.0 yards.

UL Monroe is estimated to score 29.7 points on the road. UL Monroe is forecast to pass for 1.6 touchdowns on 39.0 pass attempts with 22.9 competitions for 238.1 yards, and a predicted 2.8 interceptions. The model predicts UL Monroe will rush on 41.0 attempts against Texas State with an estimated total of 272.5 yards and 1.8 running touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 73.8% probability to cover a -1.5 spread, UL Monroe is the best value for the ATS bets. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 65.2% over estimate and -110 line odds for 61.5 runs.

Posted at Tue, October 8, 2019 17:12:42 UTC