The Home Steelers's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Ravens

Sat, Nov 28, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-11-29 -- The Steelers change of losing to the Ravens is 61.1% based on our model.

The Steelers have an average of 13.7 points in our model for the game. The Snoozle football model estimates the Steelers will throw 20.3 competitions on 38.3 attempts against the Ravens with an estimated 0.1 interception for a total of 191.8 yards and 0.8 passing touchdowns. The Steelers are forecast to rush for 124.8 yards on 22.6 attempts with an estimated 0.6 rushing touchdowns.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Ravens have an average of 18.8 points for the game. The Ravens are predicted from the model to throw for 223.1 yards on 41.3 attempts for 23.5 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.1 touchdown and 1.7 interceptions. The Ravens are estimated from the model to rush for 0.7 touchdowns against Steelers with 31.0 rush attempts for 154.2 yards.

Based on a predicted 74.3% probability to cover a +5.0 spread, the Ravens are the best value for the ATS bets. The over/under line of 44.5 runs with -110 over odds and a predicted 59.4% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Sat, November 28, 2020 13:03:48 UTC