The Home Saints's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Packers

Sat, Sep 26, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-09-28 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Saints are predicted with a 73.2% to lose at home against the Packers.

The Saints have an average of 13.6 points in our model for the game. The Saints are expected to throw for 1.1 touchdown with 34.0 pass attempts with 24.2 competitions for 238.1 yards, and an estimated 0.5 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Saints will rush for 0.4 touchdowns against the Packers defense on 28.1 attempts for a projected 95.6 yards.

The Snoozle model forecast the Packers to score 25.3 points on the road. Our model forecasts Packers will pass for 1.6 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions against the Saints defense on a forecasted 22.8 competitions with 40.8 attempts for 245.5 yards. The model predicts the Packers will rush on 33.9 attempts against the Saints with an estimated total of 163.4 yards and 0.9 running touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 80.7% probability to cover a +3.0 spread, the Packers are the best value for the ATS bets. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 61.9% over estimate and -110 line odds for 52.5 runs.

Posted at Sat, September 26, 2020 13:03:58 UTC