The Home Minnesota's Offense is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull Over Iowa

Fri, Nov 13, 2020 | Consuelo Machina


2020-11-13 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, Minnesota is predicted with a 87.7% to lose at home against Iowa.

Minnesota is estimated to score 16.7 points at home. Our model forecasts Minnesota will pass for 0.8 touchdowns and 0.0 interceptions against the Iowa defense on a projected 9.4 competitions with 15.5 attempts for 151.3 passing yards. Minnesota is forecast to rush for 206.8 yards on 42.0 attempts with an estimated 1.0 rushing touchdowns.

Iowa is estimated to score 41.7 points on the road. Iowa is predicted from the model to throw for 373.6 yards on 42.1 attempts for 29.1 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 2.8 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. Iowa is predicted to run for 372.4 yards on 41.8 attempts with an estimated 2.5 touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 85.0% probability to cover a -3.5 spread, Iowa is the best value for the ATS bets. With an over/under of 58.0 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 75.4% over likelihood and -110 odds.

Posted at Fri, November 13, 2020 13:01:23 UTC