The Home Cowboys's Offense is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Cardinals

Tue, Oct 20, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-10-20 -- The Cowboys under perform at home with a 82.9% chance to lose against the Cardinals based on our football model.

The Cowboys have an average of 12.6 points in our model for the game. The Cowboys are expected to throw for 0.8 touchdowns with 37.0 pass attempts with 20.9 competitions for 200.3 yards, and an estimated 0.6 interceptions. The model estimates the Cowboys will run on 22.8 attempts against the Cardinals with an estimated total of 118.4 yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Cardinals have an average of 30.9 points for the game. The Cardinals are predicted from the model to throw for 334.1 yards on 47.3 attempts for 29.3 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 2.2 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions. The model predicts the Cardinals will rush on 33.1 attempts against the Cowboys with an estimated total of 212.0 yards and 1.4 running touchdowns.

For this game, the Cardinals are the best value against the spread bets with on a predicted 82.9% probability to beat the -1.5 point spread. With a predicted 55.1% likelihood and -110 odds at 54.5 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Tue, October 20, 2020 13:01:47 UTC