The Home Colts's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Jaguars

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-11-17 -- The Colts have a 54.9% likelihood to fall to the Jaguars with a based on our model.

The Colts are predicted to score 14.9 points on the home turf against Jaguars. The Colts are expected to throw for 1.0 touchdowns with 35.8 pass attempts with 18.9 competitions for 208.0 yards, and an estimated 0.2 interceptions. The model estimates the Colts will run on 27.7 attempts against the Jaguars with an estimated total of 124.3 yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Jaguars have an average of 18.3 points for the game. The Jaguars are predicted from the model to throw for 262.5 yards on 42.2 attempts for 27.6 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.3 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions. The model predicts the Jaguars will rush on 24.5 attempts against the Colts with an estimated total of 134.3 yards and 0.7 running touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 66.2% probability to cover a +3.0 spread, the Jaguars are the best value for the ATS bets. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 58.6% over estimate and -110 line odds for 44.0 runs.

Posted at Thu, November 14, 2019 13:05:20 UTC