The Home Broncos's Offense is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Chiefs

Sat, Oct 24, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-10-25 -- The Broncos change of losing to the Chiefs is 81.2% based on our model.

The Broncos are estimated to score 12.9 points at home. The Broncos are estimated from the model to throw for 197.9 yards on 35.0 attempts for 19.9 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 0.9 touchdowns and 2.0 interceptions. The Broncos are predicted from the model to run for 0.3 touchdowns against Chiefs with 21.8 rush attempts for 75.5 yards.

Based on the montecarlo model, the Chiefs have an average of 28.5 points for the game. The Chiefs are predicted from the model to throw for 280.4 yards on 42.6 attempts for 22.0 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.9 touchdowns and 1.7 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Chiefs will rush for 1.5 touchdowns against the Broncos defense on 30.6 attempts for a projected 230.5 yards.

For this game, the Chiefs are the best value against the spread bets with on a predicted 81.2% probability to beat the -9.5 point spread. Based on the prediction model's over 64.8% likelihood and -110 odds, the over line with 46.0 runs is the best value.

Posted at Sat, October 24, 2020 13:11:43 UTC