The Home Bills's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Rams

Sat, Sep 26, 2020 | Rob Otto


2020-09-27 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Bills are predicted with a 85.4% to lose at home against the Rams.

The Bills are predicted to score 9.8 points on the home turf against Rams. Our model forecasts the Bills will pass for 0.6 touchdowns and 1.9 interceptions against the Rams defense on a projected 23.1 competitions with 37.1 attempts for 171.4 passing yards. The model estimates the Bills will run on 22.2 attempts against the Rams with an estimated total of 111.3 yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns.

On the road, the Rams are forecast to score 27.0 points against Bills. The Rams are forecast to pass for 2.1 touchdown on 38.3 pass attempts with 22.3 competitions for 310.0 yards, and a predicted 1.8 interceptions. The model predicts the Rams will rush on 39.8 attempts against the Bills with an estimated total of 168.0 yards and 1.0 running touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 89.0% probability to cover a +2.5 spread, the Rams are the best value for the ATS bets. Based on the over(-110)/under(-110) odds, the 46.5 runs for this line, and our model's predicted combined score estimate, there is no good over/under value.

Posted at Sat, September 26, 2020 13:03:58 UTC