The Home Bears's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Underdog Packers

Fri, Aug 30, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-09-05 -- The Bears under perform at home with a 62.5% chance to lose against the Packers based on our football model.

At home, the Bears are forecast to score 14.5 points. The Snoozle football model estimates the Bears will throw 20.6 competitions on 38.3 attempts against the Packers with an estimated 0.2 interceptions for a total of 239.8 yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns. The Bears are forecast to rush for 114.3 yards on 24.5 attempts with an estimated 0.5 rushing touchdowns.

On the road, the Packers are forecast to score 20.3 points against Bears. The Packers are predicted from the model to throw for 236.5 yards on 43.0 attempts for 25.9 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.3 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions. The Packers are predicted to run for 135.9 yards on 25.9 attempts with an estimated 0.8 touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 70.8% probability to cover a +3.5 spread, the Packers are the best value for the ATS bets. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 58.5% over estimate and -110 line odds for 46.0 runs.

Posted at Fri, August 30, 2019 18:32:47 MST