The At-Home Reds with Top Predicted Hitter Aristides Aquino Forecasted Winner Over the Phillies

Thu, Sep 5, 2019 | Emma Botos


Jason Vargas
Jeff Dunn on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 5, 2019 -- The Reds have a 60.33% chance of winning at home against the Phillies according to the Snoozle Sports MLB model.

Likely starting pitcher Sonny Gray for the Reds will be matched up with the Phillies probable starter Jason Vargas. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Sonny Gray will have 2.118 earned runs, a predicted 22.332 outs, and 6.721 strike outs. The Snoozle model estimates the Phillies pitcher will have an outing for 6.718 innings, allowing 2.335 earned runs, with 2.398 walks.

Aristides Aquino, Reds's top hitter, will slug it out against Corey Dickerson in today's game. According to our game model, Aristides Aquino RF is estimated to bring in 0.996 RBIs and 0.803 runs scored, with an 0.349 OBP and 1.155 Ks. According to our game model, Corey Dickerson is estimated to have 0.485 RBIs and score 0.552 runs over an estimated 4.709 at-bats.

Based on the odds and win probabilities, there is no good value on the money line for the Phillies +150 at Reds -160 game. The over/under line of 9.0 runs with +100 over odds and a predicted 61.60% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Thu, September 5, 2019 13:03:51 UTC