The At-Home Phillies with Top Predicted Hitter Bryce Harper Forecasted Winner Over the Marlins

Sat, Sep 28, 2019 | Emma Botos


Caleb Smith with the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in April 2019
Ian D'Andrea on Flickr License

September 28, 2019 -- In a matchup between hitters Rhys Hoskins and Starlin Castro, our model estimates the Phillies have an estimated 51.09% likelihood of defeating the Marlins.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Phillies's Zach Eflin and the Marlins's Caleb Smith. Zach Eflin is estimated from the model to throw for 6.888 innings, allowing 2.118 earned runs, with 6.878 Ks. The Snoozle model estimates the Marlins pitcher will have an outing for 6.907 innings, allowing 1.993 earned runs, with 2.755 walks.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Bryce Harper and Tyler Heineman from Phillies and Marlins, respectively. According to our game model, Bryce Harper RF is estimated to bring in 0.512 RBIs and 0.518 runs scored, with an 0.342 OBP and 1.214 Ks. Tyler Heineman is forecast to bring in 0.431 RBIs and 0.433 runs scored, with an 0.311 OBP and 0.906 Ks.

The Marlins are the best value for the money line based on the +150 odds and a forecasted 48.91% win estimate. The over/under line of 9.0 runs with -110 over odds and a predicted 75.10% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Sat, September 28, 2019 13:05:13 UTC