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Tue, Nov 12, 2019 | Consuelo Machina
2019-11-16 -- Texas State under perform at home with a 77.1% chance to lose against Troy based on our football model.
Texas State has an average of 17.4 points in our model for the game. Our model forecasts Texas State will pass for 1.5 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions against the Troy defense on a projected 28.1 competitions with 42.4 attempts for 303.7 passing yards. The model estimates Texas State will run on 22.2 attempts against Troy with an estimated total of 60.7 yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns.
Based on the montecarlo model, Troy has an average of 31.2 points for the game. The Snoozle football model predicts Troy will throw 31.8 competitions on 48.8 attempts against Texas State with a forecasted 1.2 interceptions for a total of 378.3 yards and 2.4 touchdowns. The model predicts Troy will rush on 36.6 attempts against Texas State with an estimated total of 196.0 yards and 1.2 running touchdowns.
Based on a predicted 60.7% probability to cover a -8.5 spread, Troy is the best value for the ATS bets. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 60.1% over estimate and -110 line odds for 61.5 runs.
Posted at Tue, November 12, 2019 13:00:40 UTC