Royals Predicted to Fall at Home to Braves Despite Jorge Soler's Effort

Tue, Sep 24, 2019 | Emma Botos


Danny Duffy
Keith Allison License

September 24, 2019 -- The Royals under perform at home with a 57.99% chance to lose against the Braves based on our model.

Probable starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Julio Teheran duel it out for the Royals and Braves, respectively. Danny Duffy is estimated from the model to throw for 6.483 innings, allowing 2.638 earned runs, with 7.055 Ks. The Braves starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.714 outs, allow 2.509 earned runs, and a 0.012 probability of a complete game.

In a hitting matchup, Jorge Soler of the Royals will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Adeiny Hechavarria. Based on the Snoozle model, Jorge Soler RF is predicted to have 0.730 RBIs and score 0.705 runs over an estimated 4.069 at-bats. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Adeiny Hechavarria is predicted to bat for 0.313 with 0.848 RBIs and 0.861 run scored.

Based on the odds and win probabilities, there is no good value on the money line for the Braves -155 at Royals +137 game. Based on the over(-104)/under(-116) odds, the 9.5 runs for this line, and our model's predicted combined score estimate, there is no good over/under value.

Posted at Tue, September 24, 2019 13:06:26 UTC