Rockies Predicted to Fall at Home to Cardinals Despite Nolan Arenado's Effort

Tue, Sep 10, 2019 | Emma Botos


Cardinal Hurler Michael Wacha in 2017.
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September 10, 2019 -- The Rockies under perform at home with a 55.93% chance to lose against the Cardinals based on our model.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Rockies's Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Cardinals's Michael Wacha. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Chi Chi Gonzalez will have 3.388 earned runs, a predicted 19.994 outs, and 6.378 strike outs. The Cardinals starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 20.640 outs, allow 3.097 earned runs, and a 0.004 probability of a complete game.

The Rockies's Nolan Arenado and the Cardinals's Marcell Ozuna will duel it out from the batter's box. Based on the Snoozle model, Nolan Arenado is predicted to have 0.963 RBIs and score 0.800 runs over an estimated 4.377 at-bats. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Marcell Ozuna is predicted to bat for 0.290 with 0.952 RBIs and 0.813 runs scored.

For this matchup Rockies are the best value on the money line bets with on the +135 home ML odds and a forecasted 44.07% chance to win. With a predicted 63.37% likelihood and -120 odds at 13.5 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Tue, September 10, 2019 13:05:00 UTC