Reese McGuire's Stick is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Blue Jays Over the Underdog Orioles

Mon, Sep 23, 2019 | Emma Botos


Clay Buchholz
Keith Allison on Flickr License

September 23, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Blue Jays are predicted with a 50.21% to lose at home against the Orioles.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be Clay Buchholz paired against Chandler Shepherd. Clay Buchholz is estimated from the model to throw for 6.624 innings, allowing 2.515 earned runs, with 5.786 Ks. The Snoozle model estimates the Orioles pitcher will have an outing for 6.732 innings, allowing 2.320 earned runs, with 3.063 walks.

The Blue Jays's Reese McGuire and the Orioles's Austin Hays will duel it out from the batter's box. The Blue Jays's Reese McGuire is estimated to score 0.603 runs, 0.718 RBIs and have a 0.369 OBP. According to our game model, Austin Hays is estimated to have 0.554 RBIs and score 0.652 runs over an estimated 4.420 at-bats.

For this game the Orioles are the best value on the money line bets with on the +125 away odds and a predicted 50.21% likelihood to win. The over/under line of 9.5 runs with -105 over odds and a predicted 56.06% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Mon, September 23, 2019 13:03:53 UTC