Reds Led By Pitcher Luis Castillo at Home Expected to Beat the Cubs

Sun, Aug 11, 2019 | Emma Botos

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Jon Lester
Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA License

August 11, 2019 -- The Reds likely winner at home over the Cubs with a 52.52% of being correct based on our model.

Probable starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester duel it out for the Reds and Cubs, respectively. The Reds starting hurler is predicted to throw for 22.033 outs, allow 2.238 earned runs, and a 0.015 probability of a complete game. The Cubs's Jon Lester is predicted to throw for 6.612 innings, allowing 2.508 earned runs, with 6.925 Ks.

Eugenio Suarez, Reds's top hitter, will slug it out against Kris Bryant in today's game. Based on the Snoozle model, Eugenio Suarez is predicted to have 0.744 RBIs and score 0.684 runs over an estimated 4.192 at-bats. According to our game model, Kris Bryant is estimated to have 0.530 RBIs and score 0.593 runs over an estimated 4.036 at-bats.

With +120 money line odds and a estimated 47.48% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Cubs over the Cubs. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 57.51% over estimate and -115 line odds for 9.0 runs.

Posted at Sun, August 11, 2019 13:04:21 UTC