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Phillies Predicted to Fall at Home to Underdog Pirates Despite Corey Dickerson's Effort
Mon, Aug 26, 2019 | Emma Botos
Joe Musgrove
Keith Allison on Flickr License
August 26, 2019 -- The Phillies change of losing to the Pirates is 51.74% based on our model.
The hosting Phillies have Jason Vargas in the rotation against the Pirates's pitcher Joe Musgrove. Jason Vargas is estimated from the model to throw for 6.773 innings, allowing 2.316 earned runs, with 5.842 Ks. The Pirates starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 22.156 outs, allow 2.270 earned runs, and a 0.019 probability of a complete game.
In a hitting matchup, Corey Dickerson of the Phillies will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Jose Osuna. Based on the Snoozle model, Corey Dickerson is predicted to have 0.689 RBIs and score 0.490 runs over an estimated 4.442 at-bats. Jose Osuna is forecast to bring in 0.741 RBIs and 0.523 runs scored, with an 0.328 OBP and 0.787 Ks.
According to the +115 ML away odds and an predicted 51.74% chance to win, the Pirates are the best value for the money line. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 67.05% over estimate and -120 line odds for 9.5 runs.
Posted at Mon, August 26, 2019 13:02:53 UTC