Phillies Forecasted to Lose at Home to Indians Despite Bryce Harper's Effort

Fri, Sep 20, 2019 | Emma Botos


Drew Smyly
Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 20, 2019 -- The Phillies has an estimated 87.01% likelihood to lose to the Indians based on our model.

Likely visiting starter Drew Smyly will will duel it out with the Indians probable starter Shane Bieber. The Phillies starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 18.417 outs, allow 4.493 earned runs, and a 0.000 probability of a complete game. The Indians starting hurler is predicted to throw for 22.959 outs, allow 1.798 earned runs, and a 0.038 probability of a complete game.

The Phillies's Bryce Harper and the Indians's Jordan Luplow will slug it out from the plate. According to our game model, Bryce Harper RF is estimated to have 0.424 RBIs and score 0.456 runs over an estimated 3.809 at-bats. The Indians's Jordan Luplow is estimated to score 0.998 runs, 1.298 RBIs and have a 0.439 OBP.

For this matchup Indians are the best value on the money line bets with on the -208 home ML odds and a forecasted 87.01% chance to win. According to prediction model the 75.37% over estimate and -114 line odds for 8.5 runs, the over line is the best value.

Posted at Fri, September 20, 2019 13:04:35 UTC