Phillies Forecasted to Lose at Home to Braves Despite Bryce Harper's Effort

Thu, Sep 19, 2019 | Emma Botos


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September 19, 2019 -- The Phillies has an estimated 62.21% likelihood to lose to the Braves based on our model.

On the mound for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola matched up against Michael Soroka. The Phillies starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.008 outs, allow 2.661 earned runs, and a 0.007 probability of a complete game. Michael Soroka is estimated from the model to throw for 6.892 innings, allowing 2.068 earned runs, with 6.973 Ks.

The Phillies's Bryce Harper and the Braves's Freddie Freeman will slug it out from the plate. According to our game model, Bryce Harper RF is estimated to have 0.493 RBIs and score 0.548 runs over an estimated 3.925 at-bats. Freddie Freeman 1B is forecast to bat for 0.285 with 0.702 RBIs and 0.729 runs scored.

For this matchup Braves are the best value on the money line bets with on the -159 home ML odds and a forecasted 62.21% chance to win. With an over/under of 8.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 50.97% over likelihood and -102 odds.

Posted at Thu, September 19, 2019 13:03:27 UTC