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Pete Alonso's Stick is Forecast to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Favorite Mets Over the Braves
Sat, Aug 24, 2019 | Emma Botos
Max Fried and Bryse Wilson of the Atlanta Braves before a game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in 2019
Ian D'Andrea on Flickr License
August 24, 2019 -- The Mets under perform at home with a 51.27% chance to lose against the Braves based on our model.
The hosting Mets have Zack Wheeler in the rotation against the Braves's pitcher Max Fried. The Mets starting hurler is predicted to throw for 21.498 outs, allow 2.435 earned runs, and a 0.011 probability of a complete game. The Snoozle model estimates the Braves pitcher will have an outing for 6.520 innings, allowing 2.721 earned runs, with 2.495 walks.
The Mets's Pete Alonso and the Braves's Adeiny Hechavarria will duel it out from the batter's box. Based on the Snoozle model, Pete Alonso is predicted to have 0.823 RBIs and score 0.782 runs over an estimated 4.060 at-bats. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Adeiny Hechavarria is predicted to bat for 0.310 with 1.146 RBIs and 0.676 runs scored.
For this game the Braves are the best value on the money line bets with on the +105 away odds and a predicted 51.27% likelihood to win. Based on the prediction model's over 58.15% likelihood and -115 odds, the over line with 8.0 runs is the best value.
Posted at Sat, August 24, 2019 13:03:44 UTC