Paul Goldschmidt's Stick is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Cardinals Over the Underdog Nationals

Fri, Oct 11, 2019 | Emma Botos


Miles Mikolas pitching for the St.Louis Cardinals in 2018.
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October 11, 2019 -- The Cardinals change of losing to the Nationals is 60.14% based on our model.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Cardinals's Miles Mikolas and the Nationals's Anibal Sanchez. Miles Mikolas is estimated from the model to throw for 6.479 innings, allowing 2.777 earned runs, with 6.018 Ks. The Nationals's Anibal Sanchez is predicted to throw for 6.798 innings, allowing 2.162 earned runs, with 6.721 K.

In a hitting matchup, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Anthony Rendon. According to our game model, Paul Goldschmidt 1B is estimated to bring in 0.577 RBIs and 0.530 runs scored, with an 0.323 OBP and 1.125 Ks. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Anthony Rendon is predicted to bat for 0.304 with 0.718 RBIs and 0.801 run scored.

For this game the Nationals are the best value on the money line bets with on the +106 away odds and a predicted 60.14% likelihood to win. Based on the prediction model's over 53.49% likelihood and -108 odds, the over line with 8.0 runs is the best value.

Posted at Fri, October 11, 2019 13:01:52 UTC