On the Road Pitt Forecasted to Beat Favored Duke

Tue, Oct 1, 2019 | Consuelo Machina


2019-10-05 -- Pitt with a 65.5% forecasted chance to beat Duke on the road based on the Snoozle football model.

Based on the montecarlo model, Pitt has an average of 19.2 points for the game. Pitt is forecast to pass for 1.6 touchdowns on 48.8 pass attempts with 28.4 competitions for 341.3 yards, and a predicted 0.2 interceptions. Pitt is estimated from the model to rush for 0.4 touchdowns against Duke with 30.0 rush attempts for 95.1 yards.

At home, Duke is forecast to score 13.4 points. Duke is expected to throw for 0.5 touchdowns with 31.7 pass attempts with 17.7 competitions for 137.0 yards, and an estimated 1.9 interceptions. Our model forecasts Duke will rush for 0.6 touchdowns against the Pitt defense on 40.7 attempts for a projected 176.7 yards.

Pitt is the best value for the against the spread bets based on a forecasted 78.6% likelihood estimate to cover a +5.0 point spread. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 70.1% over estimate and -110 line odds for 48.5 runs.

Posted at Tue, October 1, 2019 13:01:15 UTC