Odds-on Pirates Hurler Joe Musgrove Predicted Loser Against Rockies

Sat, Aug 31, 2019 | Emma Botos


Joe Musgrove
Keith Allison on Flickr License

August 31, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle MLB model, the Pirates are likely to fail on the road with a 62.79% chance of being correct against the Rockies.

The Pirates have Joe Musgrove as the probable starting pitcher against Tim Melville. The Pirates starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.685 outs, allow 2.484 earned runs, and a 0.012 probability of a complete game. Tim Melville is estimated from the model to throw for 7.006 innings, allowing 1.966 earned runs, with 5.366 Ks.

Josh Bell, Pirates's top hitter, will slug it out on the road against Trevor Story in today's game. The Pirates's Josh Bell from the plate is forecast to score 0.514 runs, 0.615 RBIs and have a 0.314 OBP. The Rockies's Trevor Story is estimated to score 0.731 run, 0.611 RBIs and have a 0.348 OBP.

With +110 money line odds and a forecasted 62.79% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Rockies over the Pirates. The over/under line of 14.0 runs with -115 over odds and a predicted 90.65% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Sat, August 31, 2019 13:06:32 UTC