Odds Favorite Patriots Forecasted to Lose at Home to Texans

Thu, Nov 28, 2019 | Rob Otto

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2019-12-01 -- On the road, the Patriots has a 50.7% chance to lose to the Texans from our Snoozle montecarlo model.

The Patriots are estimated to score 16.5 points on the road. The Patriots are forecast to pass for 1.3 touchdowns on 42.2 pass attempts with 23.6 competitions for 262.1 yards, and a predicted 0.3 interceptions. Our model forecasts the Patriots will rush for 0.5 touchdowns against the Texans defense on 22.1 attempts for a projected 108.5 yards.

The Texans have an average of 17.0 points in our model for the game. The Texans are estimated from the model to throw for 222.7 yards on 39.2 attempts for 23.7 competitions. In the game, the team is predicted to throw 1.0 touchdowns and 2.0 interceptions. The Texans are predicted from the model to run for 0.6 touchdowns against Patriots with 30.2 rush attempts for 142.7 yards.

The Texans are the best value for the ATS based on a predicted 57.2% estimated to cover a +3.0 spread. With a predicted 57.5% likelihood and -110 odds at 45.0 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Thu, November 28, 2019 11:14:01 MST