Nolan Arenado's Stick is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Rockies Over the Mets

Tue, Sep 17, 2019 | Emma Botos


Marcus Stroman on September 30, 2015
Keith Allison License

September 17, 2019 -- The Rockies have a 63.15% likelihood to fall to the Mets with a based on our model.

On the mound for the Rockies will be Tim Melville paired against Marcus Stroman. Our model forecasts the Rockies pitcher will have an outing for 6.278 innings, allowing 3.139 earned runs, with a 3.111 walk. The Mets starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.939 outs, allow 2.399 earned runs, and a 0.017 probability of a complete game.

The Rockies's Nolan Arenado and the Mets's Jeff McNeil will duel it out from the batter's box. Based on the Snoozle model, Nolan Arenado is predicted to have 0.718 RBIs and score 0.649 runs over an estimated 4.162 at-bats. The Mets's Jeff McNeil from the plate is forecast to score 0.806 runs, 0.683 RBIs and have a 0.399 OBP.

According to the -159 ML away odds and an predicted 63.15% chance to win, the Mets are the best value for the money line. With a predicted 74.63% likelihood and +100 odds at 13.5 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Tue, September 17, 2019 13:05:02 UTC