Sat, Dec 12, 2020 | Consuelo Machina
2020-12-12 -- New Mexico has a 91.5% likelihood to fall to Fresno State with a based on our model.
New Mexico is estimated to score 12.4 points at home. Our model forecasts New Mexico will pass for 0.7 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions against the Fresno State defense on a projected 18.5 competitions with 33.4 attempts for 171.7 passing yards. New Mexico is predicted from the model to run for 0.5 touchdowns against Fresno State with 30.9 rush attempts for 150.4 yards.
Based on the montecarlo model, Fresno State has an average of 36.7 points for the game. Fresno State is predicted from the model to throw for 502.4 yards on 51.7 attempts for 31.3 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 3.2 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions. The model predicts Fresno State will rush on 46.6 attempts against New Mexico with an estimated total of 151.8 yards and 1.0 running touchdowns.
Based on a predicted 75.2% probability to cover a -12.0 spread, Fresno State is the best value for the ATS bets. With an over/under of 58.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 53.4% over likelihood and -110 odds.
Posted at Sat, December 12, 2020 13:01:13 UTC