New Mexico's Defense is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull Over the Home Underdog Utah State

Wed, Nov 25, 2020 | Consuelo Machina


2020-11-26 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo football model, New Mexico is likely to fail on the road with a 76.6% chance of being correct against Utah State.

On the road, New Mexico is forecast to score 9.5 points against Utah State. Our model forecasts New Mexico will pass for 0.5 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions against the Utah State defense on a forecasted 21.9 competitions with 40.4 attempts for 150.6 yards. New Mexico is predicted to run for 127.9 yards on 32.2 attempts with an estimated 0.2 touchdowns.

At home, Utah State is forecast to score 18.8 points. The Snoozle football model estimates Utah State will throw 23.2 competitions on 54.3 attempts against New Mexico with an estimated 1.2 interceptions for a total of 223.8 yards and 0.9 passing touchdowns. Utah State is predicted from the model to run for 0.7 touchdowns against New Mexico with 40.5 rush attempts for 191.8 yards.

Utah State is the best value for the ATS based on a predicted 87.2% estimated to cover a +6.5 spread. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 91.2% over estimate and -110 line odds for 51.5 runs.

Posted at Wed, November 25, 2020 13:02:01 UTC