Michael Lorenzen's Stick is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Reds Over the Mets

Fri, Sep 20, 2019 | Emma Botos


Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets, July 31, 2016.
D. Benjamin Miller License

September 20, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle prediction model, the Reds have a 62.28% take a home loss against the Mets.

The hosting Reds have Luis Castillo in the rotation against the Mets's pitcher Jacob deGrom. Our model forecasts the Reds pitcher will have an outing for 6.748 innings, allowing 2.250 earned runs, with a 2.652 walks. The Mets's Jacob deGrom is predicted to throw for 7.280 innings, allowing 1.525 earned runs, with 7.324 Ks.

The Reds's Michael Lorenzen and the Mets's Jeff McNeil will duel it out from the batter's box. Michael Lorenzen is forecast to bat for 0.215 with 0.603 RBIs and 0.463 runs scored. Jeff McNeil is forecast to bring in 0.513 RBIs and 0.596 runs scored, with an 0.350 OBP and 0.647 Ks.

According to the -152 ML away odds and an predicted 62.28% chance to win, the Mets are the best value for the money line. With a predicted 52.35% likelihood and -103 odds at 7.5 runs, the under line is the best value.

Posted at Fri, September 20, 2019 13:04:35 UTC