Mets Predicted to Fall at Home to Underdog Diamondbacks Despite Jeff McNeil's Effort

Tue, Sep 10, 2019 | Emma Botos


Zack Wheeler warming up, March 3, 2019
D. Benjamin Miller License

September 10, 2019 -- The Mets under perform at home with a 52.73% chance to lose against the Diamondbacks based on our model.

The hosting Mets have Zack Wheeler in the rotation against the Diamondbacks's pitcher Zac Gallen. Zack Wheeler is estimated from the model to throw for 6.573 innings, allowing 2.652 earned runs, with 6.159 Ks. The Snoozle model estimates the Diamondbacks pitcher will have an outing for 6.569 innings, allowing 2.508 earned runs, with 2.600 walks.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Jeff McNeil and Ketel Marte from Mets and Diamondbacks, respectively. Based on the Snoozle model, Jeff McNeil is predicted to have 0.542 RBIs and score 0.696 runs over an estimated 4.503 at-bats. The Diamondbacks's Ketel Marte from the plate is forecast to score 0.766 runs, 0.682 RBIs and have a 0.371 OBP.

With +115 money line odds and a estimated 52.73% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Diamondbacks over the Mets. According to prediction model the 59.75% over estimate and -105 line odds for 8.0 runs, the over line is the best value.

Posted at Tue, September 10, 2019 13:05:00 UTC