Marlins Predicted to Fall at Home to Nationals Despite Austin Dean's Effort

Sat, Sep 21, 2019 | Emma Botos


Stephen Strasburg
Keith Allison on Flickr License

September 21, 2019 -- The Marlins change of losing to the Nationals is 67.38% based on our model.

Probable starting pitchers Jordan Yamamoto and Stephen Strasburg duel it out for the Marlins and Nationals, respectively. Jordan Yamamoto is estimated from the model to throw for 6.904 innings, allowing 1.973 earned runs, with 6.253 Ks. Stephen Strasburg is estimated to have 1.386 earned runs, 23.792 outs, and 5.902 strike outs.

Austin Dean, Marlins's top hitter, will slug it out against Anthony Rendon in today's game. Austin Dean is forecast to bat for 0.242 with 0.317 RBIs and 0.278 runs scored. Anthony Rendon is forecast to bring in 0.607 RBIs and 0.589 runs scored, with an 0.367 OBP and 0.611 K.

Based on the +263 odds and an estimated 32.62% chance to win, the Marlins are the best value for the money line. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 77.77% over estimate and -106 line odds for 8.0 runs.

Posted at Sat, September 21, 2019 14:10:28 MST