Marlins Hurler Hector Noesi Forecasted Loser at Home Against Braves

Sun, Aug 11, 2019 | Emma Botos

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Mike Foltynewicz signs autographs at a Houston sports collectors show in January 2014.
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August 11, 2019 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo model, the Marlins are predicted with a 62.83% to lose at home against the Braves.

This game is setup to be a pitching duel between the Marlins's Hector Noesi and the Braves's Mike Foltynewicz. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Hector Noesi will have 3.025 earned runs, a predicted 20.563 outs, and 6.303 strike outs. The Braves starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.492 outs, allow 2.530 earned runs, and a 0.010 probability of a complete game.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Brian Anderson and Freddie Freeman from Marlins and Braves, respectively. Based on the Snoozle model, Brian Anderson is predicted to have 0.561 RBIs and score 0.612 runs over an estimated 4.169 at-bats. Freddie Freeman 1B is forecast to bring in 0.784 RBIs and 0.782 runs scored, with an 0.399 OBP and 0.909 Ks.

With +180 money line odds and a forecasted 37.17% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Marlins over the Braves. With an over/under of 8.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 63.20% over likelihood and -120 odds.

Posted at Sun, August 11, 2019 13:04:21 UTC