Marlins Forecasted to Lose at Home to Diamondbacks Despite Jorge Alfaro's Effort

Mon, Sep 16, 2019 | Emma Botos


Robbie Ray
jnashboulden on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 16, 2019 -- On the road, the Marlins has a 62.39% chance to lose to the Diamondbacks from our Snoozle montecarlo model.

This game is a match up between the Marlins's Pablo Lopez and the Diamondbacks's Robbie Ray. The Marlins's Pablo Lopez is predicted to throw for 6.741 innings, allowing 2.348 earned runs, with 6.586 Ks. Our model forecasts the Diamondbacks pitcher will have an outing for 6.901 innings, allowing 2.001 earned runs, with a 2.231 walk.

The Marlins's Jorge Alfaro and the Diamondbacks's Ketel Marte will slug it out from the plate. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Jorge Alfaro is predicted to bat for 0.265 with 0.559 RBIs and 0.389 runs scored. According to our game model, Ketel Marte is estimated to bring in 0.638 RBIs and 0.680 runs scored, with an 0.369 OBP and 0.663 Ks.

According to the +200 ML away odds and an predicted 37.61% chance to win, the Marlins are the best value for the money line. The over/under line of 8.5 runs with +107 over odds and a predicted 61.44% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Mon, September 16, 2019 13:04:13 UTC