Ketel Marte's Stick is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull the Home Diamondbacks Over the Underdog Padres

Wed, Sep 4, 2019 | Emma Botos


Eric Hosmer with the San Diego Padres in 2018.
Ian D'Andrea License

September 4, 2019 -- The Diamondbacks under perform at home with a 54.17% chance to lose against the Padres based on our model.

Probable starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Chris Paddack duel it out for the Diamondbacks and Padres, respectively. The Diamondbacks starting hurler is predicted to throw for 22.621 outs, allow 1.917 earned runs, and a 0.026 probability of a complete game. Chris Paddack is estimated to have 1.640 earned runs, 23.189 outs, and 6.363 strike outs.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Ketel Marte and Eric Hosmer from Diamondbacks and Padres, respectively. The Diamondbacks's Ketel Marte is estimated to score 0.451 run, 0.491 RBIs and have a 0.322 OBP. According to our game model, Eric Hosmer 1B is estimated to have 0.540 RBIs and score 0.405 runs over an estimated 4.195 at-bats.

With +130 money line odds and a estimated 54.17% likelihood to win, the best value is on the Padres over the Diamondbacks. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 71.81% over estimate and -105 line odds for 8.0 runs.

Posted at Wed, September 4, 2019 13:03:54 UTC