Jon Berti's Hitting is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Visiting Marlins Over the Mets

Mon, Sep 23, 2019 | Emma Botos


Caleb Smith with the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park in April 2019
Ian D'Andrea on Flickr License

September 23, 2019 -- On the road, the Marlins has a 62.32% chance to lose to the Mets from our Snoozle montecarlo model.

Likely starting pitcher for the Marlins, Caleb Smith, will be paired with the hosting Mets's pitcher Steven Matz. The Marlins starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 22.007 outs, allow 2.158 earned runs, and a 0.013 probability of a complete game. The Snoozle MLB model estimates Steven Matz will have 1.912 earned runs, a predicted 22.640 outs, and 7.023 strike outs.

Sluggers Jon Berti from the Marlins and Jeff McNeil from the Mets will lead the their teams from the batter's box. The Marlins's Jon Berti from the plate is forecast to score 0.475 runs, 0.333 RBIs and have a 0.335 OBP. According to our game model, Jeff McNeil is estimated to bring in 0.502 RBIs and 0.601 run scored, with an 0.349 OBP and 0.656 Ks.

The Marlins are the best value for the money line based on the +185 odds and a forecasted 37.68% win estimate. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 63.59% over estimate and -116 line odds for 8.5 runs.

Posted at Mon, September 23, 2019 13:03:53 UTC