Illinois Forecasted to Lose at Home to Michigan State

Tue, Nov 5, 2019 | Consuelo Machina

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2019-11-09 -- Based on the Snoozle montecarlo football model, Illinois is likely to fail on the road with a 61.8% chance of being correct against Michigan State.

The Snoozle model forecast Illinois to score 14.7 points on the road. Illinois is forecast to pass for 0.8 touchdowns on 33.9 pass attempts with 19.6 competitions for 197.3 yards, and a predicted 1.1 interception. Illinois is estimated from the model to rush for 0.6 touchdowns against Michigan State with 41.0 rush attempts for 163.7 yards.

Michigan State has an average of 19.6 points in our model for the game. Michigan State is expected to throw for 1.4 touchdowns with 45.9 pass attempts with 24.2 competitions for 304.0 yards, and an estimated 0.6 interceptions. Michigan State is predicted from the model to run for 0.6 touchdowns against Illinois with 36.7 rush attempts for 126.0 yards.

Based on a predicted 80.2% probability to cover a +16.0 spread, Illinois is the best value for the ATS bets. The over/under line of 45.0 runs with -110 over odds and a predicted 54.0% over likelihood, the under bet is the best value for this game.

Posted at Tue, November 5, 2019 13:00:53 UTC