Home Iowa State's Defense is Likely to Not Be Enough to Pull Over Underdog Northern Iowa

Fri, Aug 30, 2019 | Consuelo Machina


2019-08-31 -- Iowa State under perform at home with a 89.7% chance to lose against Northern Iowa based on our football model.

At home, Iowa State is forecast to score 12.3 points. The Snoozle football model estimates Iowa State will throw 19.9 competitions on 29.9 attempts against Northern Iowa with an estimated 1.0 interceptions for a total of 209.9 yards and 0.9 passing touchdowns. Our model forecasts Iowa State will rush for 0.3 touchdowns against the Northern Iowa defense on 30.4 attempts for a projected 79.0 yards.

Northern Iowa is estimated to score 31.6 points on the road. The Snoozle football model predicts Northern Iowa will throw 26.8 competitions on 48.4 attempts against Iowa State with a forecasted 0.6 interceptions for a total of 372.7 yards and 2.4 touchdowns. Northern Iowa is predicted to run for 238.0 yards on 44.0 attempts with an estimated 1.2 touchdowns.

Based on a predicted 98.9% probability to cover a +18.5 spread, Northern Iowa is the best value for the ATS bets. Based on the prediction model's over 83.1% likelihood and -110 odds, the over line with 41.5 runs is the best value.

Posted at Fri, August 30, 2019 13:06:10 MST