Favored Reds Forecasted to Fall at Home to Cubs Despite Phillip Ervin's Effort

Fri, Aug 9, 2019 | Emma Botos


Yu Darvish on August 5, 2017.
D. Benjamin Miller License

August 9, 2019 -- The Reds change of losing to the Cubs is 52.05% based on our model.

On the mound for the Reds will be Trevor Bauer paired against Yu Darvish. Trevor Bauer is estimated from the model to throw for 6.621 innings, allowing 2.558 earned runs, with 5.885 Ks. The Cubs starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 21.652 outs, allow 2.543 earned runs, and a 0.012 probability of a complete game.

Hitters Phillip Ervin from the Reds and Kris Bryant from the Cubs will lead the offense for their teams. The Reds's Phillip Ervin is estimated to score 0.478 runs, 0.545 RBIs and have a 0.394 OBP. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Kris Bryant is predicted to bat for 0.276 with 0.612 RBIs and 0.673 runs scored.

Based on the odds and win probabilities, there is no good value on the money line for the Cubs -110 at Reds -100 game. With an over/under of 8.5 runs, according to our model the over is best value based its 55.23% over likelihood and -120 odds.

Posted at Fri, August 9, 2019 13:06:57 UTC