Favored Bills Forecasted to Fall at Home to Dolphins

Thu, Oct 17, 2019 | Rob Otto


2019-10-20 -- The Bills under perform at home with a 52.1% chance to lose against the Dolphins based on our football model.

The Bills have an average of 15.3 points in our model for the game. The Bills are expected to throw for 1.0 touchdowns with 37.9 pass attempts with 17.6 competitions for 205.2 yards, and an estimated 2.2 interceptions. The Bills are predicted from the model to run for 0.6 touchdowns against Dolphins with 29.8 rush attempts for 145.0 yards.

The Dolphins are predicted to score 17.2 points against their opponent. The Dolphins are predicted from the model to throw for 204.8 yards on 40.0 attempts for 21.5 competitions. In the matchup, the offense is predicted to throw 1.0 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions. The model predicts the Dolphins will rush on 28.2 attempts against the Bills with an estimated total of 150.2 yards and 0.7 running touchdowns.

The Dolphins are the best value for the against the spread bets based on a forecasted 91.3% likelihood estimate to cover a +17.0 point spread. Based on the prediction model's over 53.2% likelihood and -110 odds, the over line with 40.0 runs is the best value.

Posted at Thu, October 17, 2019 13:06:18 UTC