Dodgers Predicted to Fall at Home to Underdog Nationals Despite Will Smith's Effort

Fri, Oct 4, 2019 | Emma Botos


Stephen Strasburg
Keith Allison on Flickr License

October 4, 2019 -- The Dodgers have a 52.28% likelihood to fall to the Nationals with a based on our model.

Likely starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers will be matched up with the Nationals probable starter Stephen Strasburg. Clayton Kershaw is estimated from the model to throw for 6.833 innings, allowing 2.150 earned runs, with 5.700 Ks. Stephen Strasburg is estimated to have 1.774 earned runs, 22.733 outs, and 6.775 strike outs.

Expected in today's lineup will be top sluggers Will Smith and Anthony Rendon from Dodgers and Nationals, respectively. Based on the Snoozle model, Will Smith is predicted to have 0.603 RBIs and score 0.446 runs over an estimated 3.746 at-bats. The Nationals's Anthony Rendon from the plate is forecast to score 0.613 runs, 0.559 RBIs and have a 0.364 OBP.

For this game the Nationals are the best value on the money line bets with on the +133 away odds and a predicted 52.28% likelihood to win. Based on the over(-110)/under(-110) odds, the 7.5 runs for this line, and our model's predicted combined score estimate, there is no good over/under value.

Posted at Fri, October 4, 2019 13:05:09 UTC