Diamondbacks Predicted to Fall at Home to Underdog Reds Despite Ketel Marte's Effort

Sun, Sep 15, 2019 | Emma Botos


Trevor Bauer
Erik Daniel Drost on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 15, 2019 -- The Diamondbacks change of losing to the Reds is 50.69% based on our model.

Likely starting pitcher Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks will be matched up with the Reds probable starter Trevor Bauer. Zac Gallen is estimated from the model to throw for 6.814 innings, allowing 2.186 earned runs, with 6.866 Ks. Trevor Bauer is estimated to have 2.410 earned runs, 21.706 outs, and 6.286 strike outs.

The Diamondbacks's Ketel Marte and the Reds's Michael Lorenzen will duel it out from the batter's box. The Diamondbacks's Ketel Marte is estimated to score 0.685 runs, 0.646 RBIs and have a 0.373 OBP. According to our game model, Michael Lorenzen is estimated to have 0.770 RBIs and score 0.598 runs over an estimated 3.771 at-bats.

According to the +130 ML away odds and an predicted 50.69% chance to win, the Reds are the best value for the money line. Based on the prediction model's over 53.54% likelihood and +102 odds, the over line with 8.5 runs is the best value.

Posted at Sun, September 15, 2019 13:04:38 UTC